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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AcatSukiloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
South Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AcatSuki

Mirana
Mirana
Kiri · 6 games
50%
Sven
Sven
NeKo · 5 games
20%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kendallx · 4 games
25%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Kiri · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 3 games
33%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 3 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Prada · 2 games
0%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Prada · 2 games
0%

South Team

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
ArzenT · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ArzenT · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
MonHty · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
MonHty · 4 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Leostyle · 2 games
50%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
JP · 2 games
100%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Wij · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 613 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
372 picks · 388 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
365 picks · 138 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
359 picks · 469 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 342 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
317 picks · 584 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
312 picks · 640 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 162 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 45%
Hero pool strength57% South Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% South Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:35
AcatSuki 50%South Team 50%
The model gave 50% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 22:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCostabile
57% · 86 games49% · 181 game
WindrangerArgius
Windranger
Slardar
Slardarkendallx
53% · 48 games44% · 178 games
BrewmasterHermit
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickKiri
49% · 123 games
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYor
55% · 102 games
Game 2prediction correct35:15
AcatSuki 50%South Team 50%
The model gave 50% on AcatSuki — the game was taken by AcatSuki in 39:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightCostabile
50% · 10 games56% · 88 games
Troll WarlordArgius
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightkendallx
60% · 33 games43% · 41 game
BroodmotherHermit
Broodmother
Hoodwink
HoodwinkKiri
42% · 41 game
Enchantress
EnchantressYor
45% · 45 games
Game 3prediction correct14:31
AcatSuki 47%South Team 53%
The model gave 53% on South Team — the game was taken by South Team in 39:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCostabile
50% · 4 games56% · 42 games
Chaos KnightArgius
Chaos Knight
Mars
Marskendallx
50% · 16 games48% · 19 games
VisageHermit
Visage
Phoenix
PhoenixKiri
38% · 29 games
Elder Titan
Elder TitanYor
56% · 12 games
Model check result
Model favoriteSouth Team · 52%
Series resultSouth Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3