ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Advance Esportsloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TMTeam Mansafwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Advance Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Team Mansaf
Batrider
islA · 1 game
Elder Titan
Nagato · 1 game
Pugna
Nagato · 1 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
islA · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
441 picks · 589 bans
Clockwerk
380 picks · 399 bans
Luna
327 picks · 393 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 461 bans
Enchantress
305 picks · 586 bans
Dark Willow
291 picks · 156 bans
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 329 bans
Sand King
263 picks · 780 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Team Mansaf
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Team Mansaf
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Advance Esports 43%Team Mansaf 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Mansaf — the game was taken by Team Mansaf.
Game 2prediction correct11:32
Advance Esports 43%Team Mansaf 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Mansaf — the game was taken by Team Mansaf in 19:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Mansaf · 57%
Series resultTeam Mansaf 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2