Чемпионат России Сбера 2025 по Dota 2 · BO3
result vs predictionAAFK30loss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
20Twicewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AFK30
No games played over 6 months.
20Twice
Dark Seeroften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Dominic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 541 bans
Shadow Shaman
449 picks · 495 bans
Ringmaster
433 picks · 229 bans
Jakiro
387 picks · 287 bans
Tusk
375 picks · 362 bans
Terrorblade
367 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 516 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 525 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% AFK30
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% AFK30
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:36
AFK30 52%20Twice 48%
The model gave 52% on AFK30 — the game was taken by 20Twice in 42:52.
Game 2prediction correct32:15
AFK30 52%20Twice 48%
The model gave 52% on AFK30 — the game was taken by AFK30 in 36:20.
Game 3prediction missed16:26
AFK30 52%20Twice 48%
The model gave 52% on AFK30 — the game was taken by 20Twice in 35:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteAFK30 · 52%
Series result20Twice 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3