DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionAAIBOTloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TToLightwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AIBOT
No games played over 6 months.
ToLight
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
399 picks · 493 bans
Muerta
372 picks · 282 bans
Tusk
369 picks · 412 bans
Pangolier
349 picks · 553 bans
Batrider
325 picks · 380 bans
Beastmaster
322 picks · 717 bans
Lion
311 picks · 142 bans
Phoenix
292 picks · 250 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% AIBOT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% AIBOT
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
AIBOT 56%ToLight 44%
The model gave 56% on AIBOT — the game was taken by ToLight.
Game 2prediction correct
AIBOT 56%ToLight 44%
The model gave 56% on AIBOT — the game was taken by AIBOT.
Game 3prediction missed
AIBOT 56%ToLight 44%
The model gave 56% on AIBOT — the game was taken by ToLight.
Model check result
Model favoriteAIBOT · 56%
Series resultToLight 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3