European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 2 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Nemiga Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 16 games
Jakiro
monodrama · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 13 games
Windranger
xsvampire · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Covisnine · 10 games
Marssignature
Covisnine · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
bashka · 10 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
xsvampire · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 590 bans
Tiny
380 picks · 377 bans
Tusk
378 picks · 424 bans
Dark Willow
366 picks · 215 bans
Pangolier
344 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
338 picks · 709 bans
Puck
326 picks · 837 bans
Nature's Prophet
315 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total82% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:42
Aim Possible 29%Nemiga Gaming 71%
The model gave 71% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 29:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SilencerGarbat1y
Nature's Prophetbashka
53% · 11 games
AxeCovisnine
67% · 8 games
Invokeryoung G
little data
Skywrath Magexsvampire
Game 2prediction correct12:30
Aim Possible 33%Nemiga Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PugnaGarbat1y
Lifestealerbashka
33% · 26 games
Queen of Painyoung G
44% · 5 games
Vengeful SpiritCovisnine
58% · 29 games
Earthshakerxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 82%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2