DreamLeague Season 27. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 0:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:1
RRiftwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Ancient Apparition
Garbat1y · 4 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 3 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Doomoften banned
chempik · 2 games
Rift
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 685 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 258 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 639 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
Disruptor
247 picks · 212 bans
Marci
245 picks · 563 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Rift
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Aim Possible
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Aim Possible 56%Rift 44%
The model gave 56% on Aim Possible — the game was taken by Rift.
Model check result
Model favoriteAim Possible · 56%
Series resultRift 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1