European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aim Possibleloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aim Possible
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Warlock
Aidar · 5 games
Dazzle
Aidar · 4 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 2 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Leshrac
Rain · 2 games
Zero Tenacity
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 24 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 24 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 24 games
Rubick
Pablo · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
524 picks · 560 bans
Ringmaster
457 picks · 233 bans
Shadow Shaman
440 picks · 486 bans
Jakiro
406 picks · 320 bans
Terrorblade
383 picks · 824 bans
Tusk
377 picks · 364 bans
Storm Spirit
362 picks · 529 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:33
Aim Possible 27%Zero Tenacity 73%
The model gave 73% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 26:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerRain
LifestealerNande
Morphlingchempik
Dark SeerNefrit
47% · 106 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
48% · 50 games
ChenSe
50% · 160 games
Tuskyamich
Game 2prediction correct42:12
Aim Possible 15%Zero Tenacity 85%
The model gave 85% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 31:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 85%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2