DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HULIGANIwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ALIS VENTORUS
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 5 games
Luna
paw · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Delight · 4 games
Tusk
waveformn · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Delight · 3 games
HULIGANI
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 45 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 44 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 41 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Jakiro
RESPECT · 37 games
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 34 games
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
611 picks · 537 bans
Tiny
534 picks · 408 bans
Phoenix
479 picks · 541 bans
Hoodwink
474 picks · 239 bans
Tusk
469 picks · 412 bans
Warlock
393 picks · 244 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1015 bans
Puck
385 picks · 916 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:33
ALIS VENTORUS 31%HULIGANI 69%
The model gave 69% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 36:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunabyun
Muertassnovv1
BristlebackNorma
PangolierCorrupted
Sand KingPanda
PuckMirage
Shadow DemonDelight
EnchantressRESPECT
Lionwaveformn
Techiessayuw
Game 2prediction correct3:33
ALIS VENTORUS 28%HULIGANI 72%
The model gave 72% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 21:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmasterbyun
PangolierMirage
TinyPanda
SlardarCorrupted
TimbersawNorma
Alchemistssnovv1
Rubickwaveformn
ChenRESPECT
PhoenixDelight
Hoodwinksayuw
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 83%
Series resultHULIGANI 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2