Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSwin 2:0series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ALIS VENTORUS
Alchemist
gotthejuice · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Juggernaut
gotthejuice · 1 game
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
fortniteMan · 1 game
Snapfire
Panda · 1 game
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
461 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 505 bans
Bane
430 picks · 271 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 534 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 804 bans
Storm Spirit
341 picks · 565 bans
Pangolier
340 picks · 517 bans
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 371 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
ALIS VENTORUS 18%Rune Eaters 82%
The model gave 82% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 28:07.
Game 2prediction correct8:24
ALIS VENTORUS 18%Rune Eaters 82%
The model gave 82% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 20:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 82%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2