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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSloss 0:1
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Rune Eaterswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALIS VENTORUS

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
waveformn · 11 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Delight · 7 games
29%
Luna
Luna
paw · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
50%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
waveformn · 5 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 4 games
50%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 48 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
monodrama · 45 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 38 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 37 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
ani-san · 36 games
39%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 27 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
514 picks · 421 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
479 picks · 254 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
479 picks · 539 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 356 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
414 picks · 358 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
363 picks · 814 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
356 picks · 867 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 203 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
ALIS VENTORUS 24%Rune Eaters 76%
The model gave 76% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 76%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1