DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
ALIS VENTORUSwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TLTeam Levanticloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ALIS VENTORUS
No games played over 6 months.
Team Levantic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
640 picks · 704 bans
Tiny
516 picks · 462 bans
Tusk
487 picks · 390 bans
Warlock
434 picks · 290 bans
Phoenix
404 picks · 346 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1077 bans
Puck
382 picks · 801 bans
Mars
379 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% ALIS VENTORUS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:10
ALIS VENTORUS 53%Team Levantic 47%
The model gave 53% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 30:15.
Game 2prediction correct29:4
ALIS VENTORUS 53%Team Levantic 47%
The model gave 53% on ALIS VENTORUS — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS in 16:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteALIS VENTORUS · 53%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2