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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMloss 0:2
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance.LATAM

No games played over 6 months.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marsoften banned
Oscar · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chen
Wij · 8 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Oscar · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Prada · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Yuma · 7 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 7 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Wij · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
387 picks · 376 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
344 picks · 351 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
319 picks · 226 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
279 picks · 281 bans
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
206 picks · 148 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
205 picks · 110 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
199 picks · 258 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
190 picks · 515 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 78%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:40
Alliance.LATAM 13%Evil Geniuses 87%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 37:09.
Game 2prediction correct19:32
Alliance.LATAM 13%Evil Geniuses 87%
The model gave 87% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 37:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 87%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2