Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMloss 1:2series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infamous.Rwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Infamous.R
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
727 picks · 465 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 383 bans
Nature's Prophet
406 picks · 571 bans
Snapfire
379 picks · 249 bans
Death Prophet
368 picks · 595 bans
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 733 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance.LATAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:18
Alliance.LATAM 81%Infamous.R 19%
The model gave 81% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 57:49.
Game 2prediction missed28:8
Alliance.LATAM 81%Infamous.R 19%
The model gave 81% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 34:23.
Game 3prediction missed21:42
Alliance.LATAM 81%Infamous.R 19%
The model gave 81% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Infamous.R in 46:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 81%
Series resultInfamous.R 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3