Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMwin 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qhaliloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Qhali
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 10 games
Undyingoften banned
Luis · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Luis · 8 games
Hoodwink
MonHty · 7 games
Snapfire
MonHty · 7 games
Kunkkasignature
Robo-Z · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Robo-Z · 6 games
Linasignature
Cucahook · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
817 picks · 576 bans
Tiny
592 picks · 407 bans
Treant Protector
524 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 419 bans
Nature's Prophet
481 picks · 774 bans
Death Prophet
430 picks · 889 bans
Snapfire
428 picks · 307 bans
Clockwerk
375 picks · 284 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 47%
Hero pool strength51% Qhali
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Alliance.LATAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:28
Alliance.LATAM 70%Qhali 30%
The model gave 70% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Qhali in 37:03.
Game 2prediction missed15:36
Alliance.LATAM 70%Qhali 30%
The model gave 70% on Alliance.LATAM — the game was taken by Qhali in 25:02.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance.LATAM · 70%
Series resultAlliance.LATAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2