Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Alliance.LATAMwin 1:0series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Thunder Awakenloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance.LATAM
No games played over 6 months.
Thunder Awaken
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 16 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 16 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 16 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 14 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 13 games
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
Dazzle
Panda · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
402 picks · 401 bans
Tiny
373 picks · 368 bans
Rubick
362 picks · 249 bans
Mirana
292 picks · 298 bans
Treant Protector
237 picks · 287 bans
Snapfire
227 picks · 120 bans
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 145 bans
Ember Spirit
196 picks · 549 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:34
Alliance.LATAM 41%Thunder Awaken 59%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 45:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 59%
Series resultAlliance.LATAM 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1