ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Blue Submarinewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 21 game
Warlockoften banned
Kidaro · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
Visageoften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
Blue Submarine
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
434 picks · 563 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 379 bans
Pangolier
321 picks · 442 bans
Luna
319 picks · 377 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 575 bans
Dark Willow
283 picks · 151 bans
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 332 bans
Sand King
257 picks · 757 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 67%
Hero pool strength53% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:18
Alliance 60%Blue Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Blue Submarine in 28:36.
Game 2prediction missed19:48
Alliance 60%Blue Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on Alliance — the game was taken by Blue Submarine in 45:42.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 60%
Series resultBlue Submarine 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2