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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Into The Breachloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Into The Breach

Rubick
Rubick
Immersion · 11 games
45%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kidaro · 8 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Xibbe · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xibbe · 7 games
43%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Immersion · 7 games
14%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
992 picks · 670 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 483 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
597 picks · 946 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
563 picks · 437 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
534 picks · 352 bans
46%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
522 picks · 518 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
512 picks · 1127 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
490 picks · 364 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:18
Alliance 69%Into The Breach 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 46:17.
Game 2prediction missed12:37
Alliance 69%Into The Breach 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 35:38.
Game 3prediction correct26:19
Alliance 69%Into The Breach 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 31:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 69%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3