ESL One Fall 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
LGD Gaming
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 31 game
Elder Titansignature
y` · 29 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 26 games
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
Grimstrokesignature
XinQ · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
XinQ · 21 game
Snapfiresignature
XinQ · 19 games
Enchantresssignature
y` · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
407 picks · 188 bans
Hoodwink
356 picks · 134 bans
Nyx Assassin
294 picks · 597 bans
Puck
282 picks · 619 bans
Dragon Knight
281 picks · 358 bans
Mars
279 picks · 469 bans
Winter Wyvern
269 picks · 235 bans
Lina
250 picks · 356 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 62%
Hero pool strength63% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total67% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
Alliance 33%LGD Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:45.
Game 2prediction correct40:40
Alliance 33%LGD Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 46:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 67%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2