Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Monaspawin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
412 picks · 415 bans
Tiny
392 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
384 picks · 262 bans
Mirana
299 picks · 309 bans
Treant Protector
254 picks · 302 bans
Snapfire
242 picks · 124 bans
Crystal Maiden
212 picks · 152 bans
Ember Spirit
205 picks · 566 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:37
Alliance 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 31:18.
Game 2prediction missed29:25
Alliance 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Alliance in 35:25.
Game 3prediction correct14:41
Alliance 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 36:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 57%
Series resultMonaspa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3