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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 23 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 16 games
44%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
54%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 15 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 14 games
64%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 12 games
67%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 12 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Puppey · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 295 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
331 picks · 253 bans
45%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 435 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
315 picks · 536 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
299 picks · 288 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
296 picks · 419 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
294 picks · 473 bans
46%
Sand King
Sand King
294 picks · 796 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:23
Alliance 34%Natus Vincere 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:14.
Game 2prediction missed23:19
Alliance 34%Natus Vincere 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Alliance in 34:10.
Game 3prediction correct19:34
Alliance 34%Natus Vincere 66%
The model gave 66% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3