Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
73 picks · 155 bans
Puck
70 picks · 172 bans
Earth Spirit
61 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
54 picks · 106 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 28 bans
Undying
47 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
46 picks · 107 bans
Phoenix
45 picks · 62 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
Alliance 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:55.
Game 2prediction missed4:33
Alliance 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 30:24.
Game 3prediction missed24:43
Alliance 66%Nigma Galaxy 34%
The model gave 66% on Alliance — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 50:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 66%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3