Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Nigma Galaxy
Lunaoften banned
iLTW · 9 games
Marsoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
Iooften banned
GH · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Miracle- · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
iLTW · 5 games
Tusk
GH · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
KuroKy · 4 games
Phoenix
GH · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
374 picks · 529 bans
Bane
358 picks · 262 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 205 bans
Weaver
309 picks · 721 bans
Io
241 picks · 590 bans
Queen of Pain
237 picks · 333 bans
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 304 bans
Disruptor
233 picks · 153 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total55% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:39
Alliance 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:01.
Game 2prediction correct12:34
Alliance 45%Nigma Galaxy 55%
The model gave 55% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 25:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 55%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2