?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

OG

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
40%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
40%
Riki
Rikioften banned
MidOne · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
20%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 991 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
425 picks · 587 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 702 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 613 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
325 picks · 307 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
292 picks · 259 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 184 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
283 picks · 397 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:40
Alliance 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Alliance — the game was taken by OG in 41:39.
Game 2prediction correct46:32
Alliance 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 48:59.
Game 3prediction correct37:19
Alliance 59%OG 41%
The model gave 59% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 31:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 59%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3