Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Old Gloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 18 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 17 games
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Malik · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
989 picks · 693 bans
Tiny
640 picks · 464 bans
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 934 bans
Disruptor
546 picks · 407 bans
Tusk
530 picks · 411 bans
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1209 bans
Clockwerk
501 picks · 382 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:18
Alliance 57%Old G 43%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:16.
Game 2prediction correct34:27
Alliance 57%Old G 43%
The model gave 57% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 44:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 57%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2