Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Old Gwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 19 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 14 games
Doomoften banned
Malik · 13 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 593 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 528 bans
Doom
553 picks · 1098 bans
Beastmaster
551 picks · 1305 bans
Techies
489 picks · 551 bans
Pangolier
470 picks · 952 bans
Ember Spirit
460 picks · 1128 bans
Enchantress
451 picks · 642 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Old G
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
Alliance 55%Old G 45%
The model gave 55% on Alliance — the game was taken by Old G in 53:44.
Game 2prediction missed18:30
Alliance 55%Old G 45%
The model gave 55% on Alliance — the game was taken by Old G in 45:55.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 55%
Series resultOld G 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2