Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Bald Rebornloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Bald Reborn
Snapfire
ZipZaper · 5 games
Tusk
ZipZaper · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
bengan · 4 games
Keeper of the Light
w33 · 3 games
Marcioften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
Silencer
bengan · 3 games
Spectreoften banned
Gorgc · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
bengan · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
551 picks · 363 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 499 bans
Tiny
499 picks · 427 bans
Treant Protector
375 picks · 452 bans
Mirana
362 picks · 355 bans
Snapfire
329 picks · 170 bans
Clockwerk
295 picks · 186 bans
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 716 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:33
Alliance 81%Team Bald Reborn 19%
The model gave 81% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 1:11:14.
Game 2prediction correct36:16
Alliance 81%Team Bald Reborn 19%
The model gave 81% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 30:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 81%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2