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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team DogChamploss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.

Team DogChamp

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Bloody Nine · 18 games
72%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
RCY · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
RCY · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
yarintheslayer · 10 games
60%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Bloody Nine · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 9 games
89%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
RCY · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
879 picks · 608 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
624 picks · 434 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 433 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
525 picks · 841 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
469 picks · 325 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
462 picks · 973 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
419 picks · 308 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 68%
Hero pool strength58% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:10
Alliance 69%Team DogChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 28:46.
Game 2prediction missed40:35
Alliance 69%Team DogChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 49:26.
Game 3prediction correct38:32
Alliance 69%Team DogChamp 31%
The model gave 69% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 53:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 69%
Series resultAlliance 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3