Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Team Secret
Nyx Assassinsignature
Zayac · 19 games
Leshracsignature
Resolut1on · 15 games
Enchantress
Puppey · 11 games
Marcioften banned
Zayac · 11 games
Tusk
Zayac · 11 games
Chensignature
Puppey · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
Crystallis · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
932 picks · 636 bans
Tiny
651 picks · 455 bans
Nature's Prophet
558 picks · 888 bans
Tusk
544 picks · 439 bans
Treant Protector
535 picks · 540 bans
Snapfire
499 picks · 336 bans
Death Prophet
481 picks · 1052 bans
Clockwerk
454 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 27%
Hero pool strength56% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total61% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:58
Alliance 39%Team Secret 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 1:04:55.
Game 2prediction correct17:29
Alliance 39%Team Secret 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:54.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 61%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2