ESL One Bangkok 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
TT Teamloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 22 games
Morphlingoften banned
Nande · 20 games
Rubicksignature
dEsire · 20 games
Warlockoften banned
Kidaro · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
Mo13ei · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Palantimos · 14 games
Visageoften banned
Palantimos · 13 games
TT Team
Batrider
Askold · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
432 picks · 548 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 370 bans
Pangolier
329 picks · 436 bans
Luna
316 picks · 370 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 574 bans
Dark Willow
278 picks · 147 bans
Dragon Knight
265 picks · 342 bans
Batrider
258 picks · 242 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Alliance
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:13
Alliance 79%TT Team 21%
The model gave 79% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 27:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 79%
Series resultAlliance 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1