ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Alliancewin 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ViKin.ggloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
ViKin.gg
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 29 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 24 games
Tinysignature
Aramis · 21 game
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 20 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 19 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 19 games
Tidehuntersignature
KheZu · 19 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
KheZu · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
415 picks · 194 bans
Mars
387 picks · 573 bans
Puck
383 picks · 877 bans
Snapfire
368 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
350 picks · 328 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 232 bans
Centaur Warrunner
284 picks · 386 bans
Ancient Apparition
268 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 74%
Hero pool strength59% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:13
Alliance 29%ViKin.gg 71%
The model gave 71% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Alliance in 40:17.
Game 2prediction missed22:7
Alliance 29%ViKin.gg 71%
The model gave 71% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Alliance in 30:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 71%
Series resultAlliance 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2