FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Flameloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AllStars
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
Omniknight
blessed kid · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
Dragon Knight
bsK7- · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 4 games
Kunkka
blessed kid · 3 games
Oracle
Accel · 3 games
Flame
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
298 picks · 192 bans
Puck
295 picks · 681 bans
Dark Willow
260 picks · 110 bans
Tusk
258 picks · 257 bans
Dawnbreaker
257 picks · 632 bans
Nature's Prophet
251 picks · 531 bans
Disruptor
246 picks · 210 bans
Marci
245 picks · 557 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% AllStars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% AllStars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
AllStars 56%Flame 44%
The model gave 56% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars.
Game 2prediction correct
AllStars 56%Flame 44%
The model gave 56% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars.
Model check result
Model favoriteAllStars · 56%
Series resultAllStars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2