The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
AllStarswin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SXSustancia Xloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AllStars
Warlocksignature
Accel · 6 games
Omniknightoften banned
blessed kid · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 4 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Benjimon · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
Sustancia X
Bristlebackoften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Clockwerk
555k · 2 games
Silencer
555k · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 2 games
Zeus
Pamplona · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Pamplona · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
489 picks · 571 bans
Jakiro
488 picks · 445 bans
Ringmaster
452 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
356 picks · 715 bans
Ancient Apparition
320 picks · 732 bans
Storm Spirit
317 picks · 499 bans
Tusk
304 picks · 264 bans
Windranger
298 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength59% AllStars
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% AllStars
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:28
AllStars 51%Sustancia X 49%
The model gave 51% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars in 55:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritBenjimon
ClockwerkPamplona
Kunkkablessed kid
Ancient Apparition555k
OracleAccel
Game 2prediction correct41:38
AllStars 52%Sustancia X 48%
The model gave 52% on AllStars — the game was taken by AllStars in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritBenjimon
Nature's Prophet555k
Phoenixblessed kid
JakiroPamplona
Naga SirenAccel
Model check result
Model favoriteAllStars · 52%
Series resultAllStars 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2