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Streamers League #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALOHADANCE Teamloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
By_Owl Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ALOHADANCE Team

Invoker
Invokeroften banned
спортик · 6 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
AfterLife · 4 games
25%
Lion
Lion
izverq · 4 games
75%
Undying
Undying
Madnexus · 4 games
75%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
33%
Lich
Lich
Madnexus · 2 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
спортик · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
izverq · 2 games
50%

By_Owl Team

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
by_Owl · 5 games
80%
Luna
Luna
Koma` · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
rostikfacekid · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
by_Owl · 5 games
40%
Techies
Techies
rostikfacekid · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
blindzone · 4 games
75%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
avice · 4 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
reira · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
617 picks · 442 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
579 picks · 331 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
421 picks · 617 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
408 picks · 459 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 364 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
333 picks · 374 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 490 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
315 picks · 956 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% By_Owl Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total72% By_Owl Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:47
ALOHADANCE Team 40%By_Owl Team 60%
The model gave 60% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 48:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerспортик
49% · 127 games49% · 178 games
Shadow Fiendavice
Shadow Fiend
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerALOHADANCE
54% · 83 games50% · 42 games
Faceless VoidKoma`
Faceless Void
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAfterLife
59% · 16 games55% · 108 games
Doomblindzone
Doom
Undying
UndyingMadnexus
49% · 104 games46% · 23 games
Crystal Maidenby_Owl
Crystal Maiden
Lion
Lionizverq
55% · 144 games40% · 123 games
Rubickrostikfacekid
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct20:45
ALOHADANCE Team 38%By_Owl Team 62%
The model gave 62% on By_Owl Team — the game was taken by By_Owl Team in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckспортик
56% · 320 games50% · 102 games
Invokeravice
Invoker
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinALOHADANCE
50% · 196 games51% · 287 games
Centaur Warrunnerblindzone
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeAfterLife
49% · 227 games48% · 150 games
KezKoma`
Kez
Undying
UndyingMadnexus
49% · 101 game50% · 419 games
Hoodwinkrostikfacekid
Hoodwink
Lion
Lionizverq
51% · 154 games45% · 40 games
Crystal Maidenby_Owl
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteBy_Owl Team · 72%
Series resultBy_Owl Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2