alohasquad vs Monkey Business — prediction ECS 1 · Dota 2

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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3

result vs prediction

Aalohasquadloss 0:2

series probability

24%76%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Monkey Businesswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

alohasquad

No games played over 6 months.

Monkey Business

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

536 picks · 761 bans

49%

Tusk

491 picks · 343 bans

47%

Dragon Knight

463 picks · 641 bans

51%

Centaur Warrunner

442 picks · 545 bans

56%

Shadow Demon

375 picks · 656 bans

54%

Gyrocopter

357 picks · 562 bans

50%

Mars

341 picks · 464 bans

48%

Hoodwink

331 picks · 148 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% alohasquad

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total76% Monkey Business

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct6:31

alohasquad 38%Monkey Business 62%

The model gave 62% on Monkey Business — the game was taken by Monkey Business in 23:18.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo

Centaur WarrunnerMiyaoo

52% · 255 games44% · 27 games

OmniknightShad