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DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
chandogsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
PiPi · 9 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Panda · 6 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolier
PiPi · 6 games
17%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
25%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Panda · 4 games
75%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
25%

chandogs

Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
S1RENM · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 1 game
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
S1RENM · 1 game
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
S1RENM · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 342 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
460 picks · 251 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
408 picks · 184 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
362 picks · 334 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 521 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 139 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 297 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 527 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Amaru Gaming 76%chandogs 24%
The model gave 76% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Amaru Gaming 76%chandogs 24%
The model gave 76% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 76%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2