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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Estar Backsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 7 games
29%
Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 7 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 5 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 5 games
60%

Estar Backs

Disruptor
Disruptor
Accel · 10 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Accel · 7 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Accel · 6 games
33%
Alchemist
Alchemist
bsK7- · 5 games
40%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
25%
Omniknight
Omniknight
bsK7- · 4 games
25%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
bsK7- · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
553 picks · 846 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 371 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 585 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
394 picks · 771 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
359 picks · 590 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
346 picks · 554 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 485 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Amaru Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:13
Amaru Gaming 54%Estar Backs 46%
The model gave 54% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 28:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezWits
44% · 8 games50% · 126 games
Monkey KingbsK7-
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
46% · 56 games54% · 25 games
Treant ProtectorAccel
Treant Protector
Chen
ChenGardick
56% · 39 games
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMichael
47% · 48 games
Game 2prediction correct12:13
Amaru Gaming 51%Estar Backs 49%
The model gave 51% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 23:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautWits
54% · 31 game49% · 225 games
GyrocopterbsK7-
Gyrocopter
Axe
AxeOscar
46% · 60 games62% · 39 games
Treant ProtectorAccel
Treant Protector
Jakiro
JakiroGardick
44% · 129 games
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMichael
43% · 44 games
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 60%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2