ESL One Birmingham 2026. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Heroicwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Amaru Gaming
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 7 games
Kezsignature
Wits · 7 games
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 6 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 5 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 5 games
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Heroic
Tusk
Scofield · 25 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
KJ · 21 game
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 17 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Yuma · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
546 picks · 818 bans
Tusk
509 picks · 368 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 644 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 575 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 739 bans
Gyrocopter
356 picks · 577 bans
Mars
343 picks · 473 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:41
Amaru Gaming 29%Heroic 71%
The model gave 71% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 26:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaWits
RazorYuma
AxeOscar
BatriderWisper
WarlockGardick
Ember SpiritTaiLung
Skywrath MageMichael
JakiroThiolicor
61% · 32 games
Treant ProtectorKJ
Game 2prediction correct9:31
Amaru Gaming 30%Heroic 70%
The model gave 70% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaWits
LeshracTaiLung
BrewmasterOscar
WeaverYuma
HoodwinkMichael
WindrangerWisper
ClockwerkGardick
Treant ProtectorKJ
51% · 205 games
TuskThiolicor
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 84%
Series resultHeroic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2