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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Peru Rejectswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Gardick · 8 games
38%
Kez
Kezsignature
Wits · 8 games
75%
Axe
Axesignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 6 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaiLung · 6 games
17%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Gardick · 5 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TaiLung · 5 games
40%

Peru Rejects

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Elmisho · 15 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 13 games
69%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
DarkMago · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 12 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
547 picks · 898 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 396 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 650 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
474 picks · 603 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 850 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 596 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 578 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
353 picks · 495 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 55%
Hero pool strength51% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:26
Amaru Gaming 33%Peru Rejects 67%
The model gave 67% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 30:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingWits
58% · 168 games49% · 132 games
Shadow FiendParker
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterOscar
48% · 240 games45% · 345 games
Storm SpiritDarkMago
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderMichael
47% · 244 games54% · 85 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionGardick
47% · 94 games45% · 122 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
58% · 62 games
Nyx AssassinScofield
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct55:35
Amaru Gaming 34%Peru Rejects 66%
The model gave 66% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 53:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWits
52% · 316 games45% · 123 games
MuertaParker
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterOscar
51% · 219 games49% · 241 game
TinyDarkMago
Tiny
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageMichael
42% · 86 games52% · 83 games
UnderlordFrank
Underlord
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorGardick
66% · 46 games47% · 77 games
EnchantressElmisho
Enchantress
52% · 143 games
BatriderScofield
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 77%
Series resultPeru Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2