EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Amaru Gaming
Storm Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
Rubick
Genek · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 4 games
Windranger
Genek · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Panda · 3 games
Lone Druidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
Techies
Panda · 3 games
Power Rangers
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 27 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 26 games
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 25 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 24 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 22 games
Rubick
Hduo · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 642 bans
Tiny
338 picks · 340 bans
Windranger
315 picks · 230 bans
Bane
309 picks · 299 bans
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 424 bans
Pangolier
291 picks · 393 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:36
Amaru Gaming 35%Power Rangers 65%
The model gave 65% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosK1
Invokerkiyotaka
PangolierPiPi
Kezbashka
AxeOscar
UndyingAlberkaaa
Keeper of the LightGenek
LichHduo
HoodwinkPanda
WindrangerImmersion
Game 2prediction correct13:33
Amaru Gaming 37%Power Rangers 63%
The model gave 63% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 21:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Vengeful SpiritK1
Shadow Fiendbashka
Dark SeerOscar
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
SlardarPiPi
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
MagnusGenek
Spirit BreakerImmersion
EnchantressPanda
Witch DoctorHduo
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 72%
Series resultPower Rangers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2