?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 30. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Amaru Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rottweilas LATAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Amaru Gaming

Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 9 games
44%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
PiPi · 8 games
63%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Panda · 6 games
17%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Oscar · 4 games
25%
Bane
Baneoften banned
Panda · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolier
PiPi · 4 games
0%
Windranger
Windranger
Genek · 4 games
75%

Rottweilas LATAM

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
530 picks · 342 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
459 picks · 250 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
408 picks · 184 bans
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
360 picks · 334 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
338 picks · 519 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
306 picks · 138 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
300 picks · 295 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
297 picks · 524 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Rottweilas LATAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Amaru Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:3
Amaru Gaming 56%Rottweilas LATAM 44%
The model gave 56% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 28:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeCostabile
43% · 131 game49% · 100 games
InvokerWonderk1d
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritPiPi
40% · 257 games60% · 49 games
Slarkpayk
Slark
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOscar
47% · 133 games54% · 334 games
HoodwinkCoYoTão
Hoodwink
Dazzle
DazzlePanda
53% · 131 game56% · 169 games
Dark WillowMichael
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed11:51
Amaru Gaming 57%Rottweilas LATAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Rottweilas LATAM in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzCostabile
47% · 107 games53% · 167 games
Kezpayk
Kez
Timbersaw
TimbersawOscar
50% · 239 games47% · 305 games
Ember SpiritWonderk1d
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierPiPi
53% · 425 games48% · 443 games
HoodwinkCoYoTão
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPanda
54% · 247 games48% · 103 games
EnchantressMichael
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct
Amaru Gaming 64%Rottweilas LATAM 36%
The model gave 64% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming.
Game 4prediction correct34:19
Amaru Gaming 57%Rottweilas LATAM 43%
The model gave 57% on Amaru Gaming — the game was taken by Amaru Gaming in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCostabile
55% · 231 game51% · 185 games
Kezpayk
Kez
Pangolier
PangolierPiPi
52% · 436 games43% · 178 games
Void SpiritWonderk1d
Void Spirit
Doom
DoomOscar
51% · 269 games50% · 512 games
HoodwinkCoYoTão
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPanda
49% · 209 games49% · 270 games
TuskMichael
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteAmaru Gaming · 64%
Series resultAmaru Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4