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DreamLeague Season 22. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Among Usloss 1:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Talon Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Among Us

No games played over 6 months.

Talon Esports

Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
23savage · 11 games
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yowe · 10 games
70%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mikoto · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 10 games
70%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Ponyo · 10 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
23savage · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 429 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
254 picks · 366 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
254 picks · 384 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
216 picks · 201 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
207 picks · 535 bans
51%
Muerta
Muerta
204 picks · 281 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
199 picks · 98 bans
52%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
187 picks · 436 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Talon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Talon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:30
Among Us 37%Talon Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 34:36.
Game 2prediction missed36:22
Among Us 37%Talon Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Among Us in 46:54.
Game 3prediction correct6:30
Among Us 37%Talon Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Talon Esports — the game was taken by Talon Esports in 29:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteTalon Esports · 63%
Series resultTalon Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3