Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliancewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ancient Tribe
Tiny
Alexxo · 13 games
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 10 games
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 9 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
712 picks · 501 bans
Disruptor
574 picks · 507 bans
Doom
562 picks · 1096 bans
Techies
546 picks · 596 bans
Beastmaster
543 picks · 1230 bans
Ember Spirit
469 picks · 1046 bans
Pangolier
464 picks · 926 bans
Enchantress
458 picks · 661 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Alliance
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:37
Ancient Tribe 47%Alliance 53%
The model gave 53% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 59:14.
Game 2prediction correct24:16
Ancient Tribe 47%Alliance 53%
The model gave 53% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 43:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 53%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2