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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
cybercatswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ancient Tribe

Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
MikSa` · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
27%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 9 games
44%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 9 games
56%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 9 games
33%

cybercats

Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 15 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
forcemajor · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techies
jesv · 11 games
27%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
44%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
zenica · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
707 picks · 608 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
579 picks · 503 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
480 picks · 1179 bans
59%
Doom
Doom
477 picks · 886 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
427 picks · 1082 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
407 picks · 869 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
401 picks · 218 bans
58%
Enchantress
Enchantress
397 picks · 571 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:28
Ancient Tribe 50%cybercats 50%
The model gave 50% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats in 49:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawMo13ei
52% · 126 games54% · 71 game
Naga SirenDarkLord^
Naga Siren
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlil pleb
46% · 108 games53% · 148 games
DoomDkFogas
Doom
Venomancer
VenomancerWuiter
55% · 66 games44% · 73 games
Windrangeryoung G
Windranger
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAlexxo
42% · 79 games68% · 33 games
Shadow Demonforcemajor
Shadow Demon
Pugna
PugnaLeBronDota
54% · 65 games42% · 119 games
UndyingDukalis
Undying
Game 2prediction missed20:39
Ancient Tribe 52%cybercats 48%
The model gave 52% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by cybercats in 38:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlil pleb
48% · 119 games54% · 41 game
Phantom LancerDarkLord^
Phantom Lancer
Viper
ViperMo13ei
51% · 91 game41% · 90 games
Windrangeryoung G
Windranger
Techies
TechiesAlexxo
57% · 154 games46% · 102 games
MagnusDkFogas
Magnus
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderWuiter
50% · 58 games56% · 174 games
Batriderforcemajor
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
52% · 168 games45% · 183 games
EnchantressDukalis
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 54%
Series resultcybercats 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2