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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HFloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ancient Tribe

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 14 games
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 12 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 8 games
38%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 7 games
57%

HF

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
SOhY · 10 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
toshiyb · 10 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 9 games
22%
Techies
Techies
weebian · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
SOhY · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
toshiyb · 8 games
25%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Actor · 7 games
14%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
877 picks · 608 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
624 picks · 434 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
531 picks · 544 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
528 picks · 432 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
524 picks · 840 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
469 picks · 325 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
462 picks · 973 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
418 picks · 308 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Ancient Tribe
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
Ancient Tribe 59%HF 41%
The model gave 59% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 30:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMo13ei
50% · 367 games42% · 120 games
Drow Rangernesfeer
Drow Ranger
Morphling
Morphlinglil pleb
49% · 220 games53% · 91 game
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
56% · 151 game47% · 217 games
BeastmasterActor
Beastmaster
Disruptor
DisruptorAlexxo
63% · 293 games48% · 392 games
RubickHeaven
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder TitanLeBronDota
43% · 36 games43% · 247 games
UndyingSOhY
Undying
Game 2prediction correct20:10
Ancient Tribe 57%HF 43%
The model gave 57% on Ancient Tribe — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 20:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistlil pleb
50% · 63 games55% · 104 games
Naga Sirennesfeer
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawMo13ei
44% · 145 games55% · 309 games
Nature's ProphetActor
Nature's Prophet
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
51% · 121 game57% · 117 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAlexxo
49% · 202 games52% · 335 games
ClockwerkHeaven
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickLeBronDota
44% · 409 games41% · 75 games
JakiroSOhY
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteAncient Tribe · 62%
Series resultAncient Tribe 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2