Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ancient Tribe
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
Tiny
Limmp · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
Dragon Knight
s4 · 6 games
Zeusoften banned
Limmp · 6 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Charlie · 5 games
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
394 picks · 600 bans
Tiny
355 picks · 264 bans
Undying
326 picks · 554 bans
Enigma
247 picks · 771 bans
Pangolier
236 picks · 341 bans
Primal Beast
228 picks · 432 bans
Death Prophet
225 picks · 341 bans
Tusk
207 picks · 98 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:58
Ancient Tribe 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 1:03:49.
Game 2prediction correct24:38
Ancient Tribe 43%Monaspa 57%
The model gave 57% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 32:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 57%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2