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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Old Gloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ancient Tribe

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Alexxo · 15 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 10 games
30%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LeBronDota · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
38%

Old G

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 16 games
56%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 16 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 13 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
young G · 12 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Hduo · 12 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 11 games
64%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Malik · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
955 picks · 655 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
660 picks · 463 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
576 picks · 921 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
556 picks · 440 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
535 picks · 530 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
516 picks · 342 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
494 picks · 1082 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
465 picks · 347 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:13
Ancient Tribe 41%Old G 59%
The model gave 59% on Old G — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 34:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperMo13ei
50% · 100 games49% · 146 games
LeshracTopson
Leshrac
Slark
Slarklil pleb
50% · 58 games42% · 80 games
AbaddonNo[o]ne
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikSa`
47% · 162 games52% · 189 games
BeastmasterResolut1on
Beastmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonAlexxo
48% · 34 games50% · 81 game
IoCeb
Io
Disruptor
DisruptorLeBronDota
62% · 142 games
Game 2prediction missed37:22
Ancient Tribe 42%Old G 58%
The model gave 58% on Old G — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetlil pleb
50% · 252 games56% · 119 games
LifestealerNo[o]ne
Lifestealer
Tiny
TinyMo13ei
46% · 533 games50% · 558 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikSa`
50% · 147 games49% · 362 games
Primal BeastResolut1on
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireAlexxo
44% · 303 games55% · 479 games
MiranaCeb
Mirana
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
49% · 283 games
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 67%
Series resultAncient Tribe 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2