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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribeloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ancient Tribe

Mirana
Miranaoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 7 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
LeBronDota · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Davai · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Alexxo · 5 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lil pleb · 5 games
80%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 9 games
89%
Tiny
Tiny
OmaR · 5 games
60%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Kaori · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wuiter · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 4 games
25%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
100%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
413 picks · 417 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
393 picks · 378 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
386 picks · 264 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
300 picks · 309 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
255 picks · 303 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
242 picks · 125 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
212 picks · 152 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
206 picks · 569 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 80%
Hero pool strength57% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:29
Ancient Tribe 38%PSG Quest 62%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 50:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlil pleb
45% · 41 game44% · 84 games
Shadow FiendTA2000
Shadow Fiend
Leshrac
LeshracMTD
60% · 143 games50% · 133 games
BatriderNo!ob
Batrider
Tidehunter
TidehuntermeLes
44% · 60 games44% · 89 games
Primal BeastWuiter
Primal Beast
Rubick
RubickHeaven
52% · 200 games51% · 65 games
Shadow DemonOmaR
Shadow Demon
Omniknight
OmniknightLeBronDota
52% · 56 games53% · 129 games
Treant ProtectorKaori
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct31:34
Ancient Tribe 33%PSG Quest 67%
The model gave 67% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 52:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMTD
50% · 273 games51% · 158 games
MorphlingTA2000
Morphling
Pudge
Pudgelil pleb
51% · 84 games49% · 215 games
Keeper of the LightNo!ob
Keeper of the Light
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmeLes
54% · 154 games52% · 98 games
TidehunterWuiter
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
43% · 211 games53% · 178 games
Treant ProtectorKaori
Treant Protector
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
53% · 194 games45% · 267 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 74%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2