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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Water Rune Enjoyersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ancient Tribe

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Alexxo · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Miranaoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MTD · 11 games
27%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
MTD · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 9 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
meLes · 8 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 8 games
38%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 7 games
43%

Water Rune Enjoyers

Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
BliNcc · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Mary_y · 13 games
31%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
75%
Rubick
Rubick
Mary_y · 12 games
33%
Razor
Razoroften banned
BliNcc · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
y0nd · 10 games
40%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
y0nd · 10 games
20%
Tusk
Tusk
y0nd · 10 games
30%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
622 picks · 405 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
547 picks · 527 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
535 picks · 430 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
429 picks · 517 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
378 picks · 380 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
357 picks · 200 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
320 picks · 476 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
319 picks · 208 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% Ancient Tribe
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Water Rune Enjoyers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:10
Ancient Tribe 50%Water Rune Enjoyers 50%
The model gave 50% on Water Rune Enjoyers — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 52:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusMTD
43% · 135 games56% · 122 games
Naga SirenPalantimos
Naga Siren
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlil pleb
51% · 97 games56% · 326 games
BeastmasterBliNcc
Beastmaster
Enigma
EnigmaMikSa`
57% · 266 games44% · 424 games
TuskStojkov
Tusk
Tiny
TinyHeaven
50% · 696 games49% · 484 games
Rubicky0nd
Rubick
Mirana
MiranaLeBronDota
48% · 349 games46% · 187 games
SilencerMary_y
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed27:25
Ancient Tribe 49%Water Rune Enjoyers 51%
The model gave 51% on Water Rune Enjoyers — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 46:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalil pleb
55% · 105 games49% · 192 games
UrsaPalantimos
Ursa
Lycan
LycanMikSa`
50% · 97 games44% · 395 games
Ember SpiritStojkov
Ember Spirit
Tiny
TinyMTD
51% · 467 games53% · 181 game
EnigmaBliNcc
Enigma
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
54% · 184 games52% · 166 games
Primal Beasty0nd
Primal Beast
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorLeBronDota
51% · 176 games39% · 95 games
JakiroMary_y
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteWater Rune Enjoyers · 52%
Series resultAncient Tribe 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2