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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ancient Tribewin 2:0
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zorka Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ancient Tribe

Puck
Puckoften banned
Limmp · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
s4 · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Limmp · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Handsken · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
s4 · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Handsken · 6 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Handsken · 5 games
40%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Peksu · 5 games
40%

Zorka Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
OneJey · 12 games
50%
Lina
Linasignature
Miyaoo · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
29%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Arti_Shock · 7 games
57%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
klassnokruto · 7 games
71%
Undying
Undyingsignature
klassnokruto · 6 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
dizzying · 5 games
40%
Sven
Sven
dizzying · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
389 picks · 595 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
365 picks · 261 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
323 picks · 545 bans
54%
Enigma
Enigma
248 picks · 766 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
236 picks · 357 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
231 picks · 336 bans
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
218 picks · 413 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
207 picks · 734 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Zorka Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Zorka Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:15
Ancient Tribe 47%Zorka Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 31:04.
Game 2prediction missed48:22
Ancient Tribe 47%Zorka Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Zorka Gaming — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteZorka Gaming · 53%
Series resultAncient Tribe 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2