animal vs Novus Gaming — prediction BSIОК · Dota 2

BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Aanimalloss 0:2

series probability

32%68%

probability at match start · final 0:2

NGNovus Gamingwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

animal

No games played over 6 months.

Novus Gaming

Hoodwink

Rico · 1 game

Lion

Rico · 1 game

Tinyoften banned

RA1NCLOUD · 1 game

Vengeful Spirit

RA1NCLOUD · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

516 picks · 333 bans

49%

Dark Willow

442 picks · 239 bans

51%

Mirana

401 picks · 178 bans

53%

Winter Wyvern

351 picks · 322 bans

58%

Ember Spirit

330 picks · 506 bans

56%

Centaur Warrunner

298 picks · 290 bans

53%

Windranger

290 picks · 132 bans

51%

Earth Spirit

289 picks · 510 bans

53%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength57% animal

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total68% Novus Gaming

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct

animal 32%Novus Gaming 68%

The model gave 68% on Novus Gaming — the game was taken by Novus Gaming.

Game 2prediction correct6:25

animal 40%Novus Gaming 60%

The model gave 60% on Novus Gaming — the game was taken by Novus Gaming in 15:50.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo